Politics

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe

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  • Create Date：2021-04-14 09:52:16
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
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  • Author：Niall Ferguson
  • ISBN：0241501768
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Summary

Disasters are by their very nature hard to predict。 Pandemics， like earthquakes， wildfires， financial crises and wars， are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe。 But when disaster strikes， we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck。 We have science on our side， after all。 Yet the responses of a number of devloped countries to a new pathogen from China were badly bungled。 Why？

The facile answer is to blame poor leadership。 While populist rulers have certainly performed poorly in the face of the pandemic， more profund problems have been exposed by COVID-19。 Only when we understand the central challenge posed by disaster in history can we see that this was also a failure of an administrative state and of economic elites that had grown myopic over much longer than just a few years。 Why were so many Cassandras for so long ignored？ Why did only some countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS？ Why do appeals to 'the science' often turn out to be mere magical thinking？

Drawing from multiple disciplines， including history， economics and network science， Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe is a global post mortem for a plague year。 Drawing on preoccupations that have shaped his books for some twenty years， Niall Ferguson describes the pathologies that have done us so much damage: from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online schism。 COVID-19 was a test failed by countries who must learn some serious lessons from history if they are to avoid the doom of irreversible decline。

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Reviews

Bagus ，

“We are all doomed。” That’s basically how Niall Ferguson starts the first chapter of his latest book to emphasise the inevitability of death。 As suggested by the four horsemen of the Book of Revelation—Conquest， War， Famine， and the pale rider Death—， it looks highly unlikely that disasters could be predicted and much less avoided。 According to Ferguson， in every disaster， there will always be a Cassandra figure who prophesied the upcoming catastrophe， much as the real Cassandra warned the peopl “We are all doomed。” That’s basically how Niall Ferguson starts the first chapter of his latest book to emphasise the inevitability of death。 As suggested by the four horsemen of the Book of Revelation—Conquest， War， Famine， and the pale rider Death—， it looks highly unlikely that disasters could be predicted and much less avoided。 According to Ferguson， in every disaster， there will always be a Cassandra figure who prophesied the upcoming catastrophe， much as the real Cassandra warned the people of Troy about the attack of the Greek warriors who were hiding in the Trojan Horse while they were celebrating their victory over the Greeks with feasting。 However， her warnings were disregarded by her people。 In 2015， Bill Gates took the role of Cassandra in telling us that we are not ready for the next epidemic after his lessons in handling the Ebola epidemic in West Africa。 In this sense， it is a kinda unique proposition that many of the Cassandra figures will be largely ignored due to the inability of the common people to comprehend the warnings prior to the disasters。Much of this book draws heavily on the previous work of the author， The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power， from the Freemasons to Facebook （2017） which highlights the importance of networks to understand historical events。 And as in his previous book， I find that this latest book by Ferguson also lacks focus。 It’s as though he wants to explain from A to Z about the history of catastrophes and the political events that accompanied them。 His central idea is every disaster whether they are man-made （war and famine） or natural （earthquake， flood， volcano eruption， plague）， is essentially at some level man-made political disasters （p。 381）。 There is a detailed explanation on why the United States as a country that used to be a leader in overcoming the 1957-1958 influenza pandemic from limiting the contagion into developing the vaccines， ended up with ineffective mitigation measures to COVID-19 pandemic。 Much blame has been attributed to President Trump’s dismissive attitude， but there’s much more to discover through Ferguson’s analysis in this book。According to Ferguson， it is important to understand the concept of networks to overcome the outbreak of COVID-19。 His research has shown that in every epidemic case in the past， there is always the role of superspreaders—people who were not aware that they were infected by the virus and ended up infecting other people who are within their networks。 In this sense， the superspreaders are within the highest degree of centrality in their networks， and it got much worse with the way our globalisation support the network further。 It deconstructs the complexities of our networks and how fragile it is to take down a complex system by only taking small factors to disrupt it。 It is interesting to see how his theory of network could be applied to analyse the shortcomings in COVID-19 mitigation strategies and why most developed countries turned out to mishandle the pandemic more than some of their developing counterparts。 Even so， much of the contents in this book remains speculation。 For the analysis on COVID-19 pandemic parts， the literature that Ferguson used are derived heavily from news and the latest trends。 It remains uncertain what the future of the post-COVID-19 pandemic looks like， even though some of the predictions that the author offers does ring true。 It looks to me that this book is research that is hastily carried out to fit the momentum of the COVID-19 pandemic。 It hardly offers something new in terms of mitigation strategies， besides the actuality of the case being discussed in it。 If I were Ferguson， I would opt to wait at least a few more years before trying to put up a discussion on the COVID-19 pandemic to gain a better picture of what lays ahead。 I am in the opinion that this is a working book， which might need further revision to meet the real conditions of what will really happen during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic， otherwise， it will be dismissive of some important factual events。And finally， as Ferguson has said at his conclusion， we might get some better understanding of what awaits us in the future by turning to the works of science fiction。 In the words of Paul Samuelson， declines in US stock prices have correctly predicted nine of the last five American recessions， but science fiction has correctly predicted nine of the last five technological breakthroughs （p。 395）。 There is an element of freedom of expression in science fiction that it’s not constrained by traditional fictional boundaries。 In 1981， Dean Koontz wrote in his novel The Eyes of Darkness with the setting of a world devastated by a man-made virus called Wuhan-400 since the virus was developed at RDNA labs outside the city of Wuhan （too much of coincidence with the city where COVID-19 was originated！）。 Albeit， the Wuhan-400 in Dean Koontz reality has a 100% fatality rate， which is different from COVID-19 which discriminately favours older people and spare the youngsters。 Overall， I would recommend Ferguson’s latest book for his thorough references more than his analysis。 Thanks to Penguin Press UK for providing the electronic advance reading copy through NetGalley。 。。。more

John Ferngrove ，

Niall Ferguson clearly felt a strong compulsion to get busy on this， while he was in lockdown。 Inspired by the events of our present pandemic he has gone looking for historical parallels in past contagions， and in human responses to disasters more generally， and what lessons they might have for our present predicament。 It is therefore curious to me that he chose to bring the project to completion at a time （Aug 2020） when the full narrative of the virus was yet to be fully disclosed and， in many Niall Ferguson clearly felt a strong compulsion to get busy on this， while he was in lockdown。 Inspired by the events of our present pandemic he has gone looking for historical parallels in past contagions， and in human responses to disasters more generally， and what lessons they might have for our present predicament。 It is therefore curious to me that he chose to bring the project to completion at a time （Aug 2020） when the full narrative of the virus was yet to be fully disclosed and， in many respects， so much more left to unfold。 That is not to say that the book is flawed as such， but from the perspective of Mar 2021 it does feel essentially unfinished。 It is a book rich in historical detail but perhaps vague in argument and conclusions drawn。 Hence my headline 'too soon to tell'。The book falls into multiple parts， the first of which forms the bulk of the text with an examination of disasters throughout history， both natural and man-made， some in the deep past， others in more recent memory。 Points that are emphasised include that the border line between natural and man-made disasters can often be difficult to draw as political and cultural factors can often determine the impact that even a natural disaster can have and what kind of response can be mounted。 Disasters ofetn come in trains， disease and famine following on from and exacerbating war; population declines or migrations leading to political upheaval and so on。 A point frequently made， and carried forward to the next section is that while it may seem obvious to lay blame with leaders for failed and botched responses it is more often than not the friction at lower levels of organisational hierarchies where the ultimate causes of such failures lie。 He is keen to expose the 'great-man' view of history as untenable one one begins to examine the details。The next section focusses on humanity's more recent brush with pandemics， looking quite closely at the truly ghastly Spanish Flu pendemic of 1918-20， and the inadequacies of its handling （he makes less of the limitations of medical knowledge at the the time than he might have）。 He then examines the largely forgotten Asian Flu pandemic of 1957-58 which had a mortality profile very similar to the present Covid outbreak， at least as it stood in Aug， 20， but which predominantly affected the young and fit， thus having a higher impact on total years of life lost。 At this time the US just got on with it， 'took it on the chin'， and made almost no efforts towards quarantine and distancing intervention patterns。 Fascinatingly， an irascible chap called Maurice Hilleman developed a vaccine。 It was only 40% effective and arrived too late to be of help， but he went on to develop nine of the standard childhood vaccinations that we routinely administer to this day。Then we come to a couple of chapters on the present Covid-19 experience。 This is packed with seemingly endless details of newspaper articles， op eds， scientific papers， congressional findings， from the both sides of the lives saved vs。 economic disruption divide。 This all makes for a voluminous bibliography， and for anyone wanting to really sink themselves into the details for the rest of their lives they would be more than able to。 Economist that Ferguson is he makes the point that using the typical actuarial value of a human life being worth ~ $10，000，000 then the equation of lives saved versus economic chaos and costs of mitigation measures rendered the earliest lockdown a mistake， at least in dollar terms。 Of course， subsequent developments may well have rebalanced that equation to something more evenly decided。 He seems motivated to moderate the popular blame of leaders， Trump and Johnson， both being heads of states that should have performed better in the crisis， given techical capabilities。 Again it is friction down at the level of state/federal interactions in the US where the innumerable small failures in response accummulate。 For the UK， he accuses Chris Witty of prevarication on lockdown and quarantine of air travel， with Dominic Cummings being the one to force the decisive response， pretty much the precise opposite of what I would have expected。 So， in this section we get a blizzard of facts， opinions， contradictory studies and no chance of any proper clarity being achieved until we eventuyally arrive at a place with effective vaccines and the hi-tech variant detection programs which have suddenly arrived to replace an absurdly and possibly criminally bungled testing program with the sequencing technology with which the UK really was an established world leader。 A long term consequence of its enforced leadership in the human genome project。 Any conclusions as to who was to be held accountable; who should have known what was to be done， now lost down among the ranks of faceless and unaccountable civil servants， buried in the bowels of White Hall。Lastly， a brief set of speculations on future possible tragedies and likelihoods of adequate responses completes the book。 This rapidly takes a left hand turn into post-Covid territory such that we are focussed now pretty much on China's great power strategy for its region， and the south China Sea， more generally。 This section does become a little spine chilling。 I myself have ny own concerns about China's super-power ambitions and about how quickly a new Cold War could turn hot。 While it has long been clear that China's， indeed Xi Jinping's， most cherished foreign policy goal is the restoration of Tawain， with Tonkin and Annam Vietnam a secondary objectice， I find myself looking at developments in the South Eastern Asian region with a new and more jaundiced eye。 The present instability in Myanmar/Burma of a ruthless regime that has got itself into debt entrapment with Chinese companies starts to seem like just the place that a nakedly agressive China migt pick to send signals of a new reality to the region and the wider world。 It seems somehow that discussion here has drifted towards the possibility of a rather different type of disaster of the human deliberate variety。 One that could put Covid into a rather more constrained perspective。Lots to think about but leaves you to form your own conclusions。 。。。more

David Wineberg ，

“All disasters are at some level man-made political disasters， even if they originate with new pathogens。“ Discuss。 In Doom， Niall Ferguson roams the world， history and even science fiction to examine disasters。 There is no shortage holding him back。 Too often， he finds midlevel managers at fault。The disasters he investigates cover the spectrum from war to pathogens， floods， earthquakes and in the end， planetary invasions。 It is an education， a peek behind the scenes， a rollercoaster and an argu “All disasters are at some level man-made political disasters， even if they originate with new pathogens。“ Discuss。 In Doom， Niall Ferguson roams the world， history and even science fiction to examine disasters。 There is no shortage holding him back。 Too often， he finds midlevel managers at fault。The disasters he investigates cover the spectrum from war to pathogens， floods， earthquakes and in the end， planetary invasions。 It is an education， a peek behind the scenes， a rollercoaster and an argument rolled into one bubbling and appealing package。 The conclusion is that government has and continues to fail us:“Approaching disasters within this broader framework makes it clear that democratic institutions by themselves are far from a sufficient safeguard against disasters of all kinds—especially those that are not normally distributed but follow power-law distributions—regardless of whether we insist on classifying them as either natural or man-made。” Ferguson examines various plagues through the ages， as knowledge of how they work gradually grew， and how such knowledge was usually ignored or abused by those in power。 This of course is most evident right now， as the Trump administration bungled the COVID-19 pandemic so badly that the USA leads the world in all the worst categories。 The implications， he says， are gigantic。 Not only do Americans not trust their own democratic government， which has been crumbling in terms of effectiveness and service since the 1970s， but now the world is rethinking its evaluation of American leadership and presence。 Ferguson presents polls and data from all over that show how others no longer think America is a worthy leader， ally or partner。 This plays right into the hands of China， the up and coming contender to replace the USA。 In what is the best， most insightful chapter of the book， Ferguson examines Cold War II， which China initiated years ago， to isolate and diminish the USA。 Ferguson thought he made that up， but when he spoke of it to Chinese experts， no one protested or disagreed。 It is an active， if undeclared war the USA is not fighting。 Yet。 This is not a natural disaster， or a disaster of any kind， really， and readers will have to contort themselves to make it fit the theme。 But it is the most interesting and thought-provoking concept presented， and it makes the book。 China’s Belt and Road program clearly seeks to displace loyalty to America with loyalty to China。 It is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to buy friends in key places。 Its aggressive actions in Hong Kong， the South China Sea and towards Taiwan are muscle-flexing to foreshadow things to come。 China wants it all， and it wants it now。 It is gathering all the intellectual property it can， and all means are approved for use。 （Its own scientists don’t seem capable of innovations leading to patents at all。 The atmosphere is not really conducive to creativity， he says。） TikTok， the global Chinese social media app， collects data on individuals， opening the way to a global surveillance society that the Chinese at home must live under today。 This goes beyond mere tracking of movements to include actions and even attitudes。 Unapproved traits or actions can result in travel bans and forced re-education。 Reputation is a critical， compulsory foundation-piece of Chinese life。 China clearly seeks fans for this brand of repression worldwide， and money talks。The chapter on the COVID-19 pandemic is the least satisfying， if only because it is far too early to write such a chapter。 Ferguson’s data ends in August 2020， before there was even a second wave。 And long before a potential third wave fueled by the new variants， now exploding globally。 He says he has hopes that a vaccine might be produced soon， what with so many candidates in various trials。 The conclusions he draws are of little use with the unpredicted acceleration of infections and deaths。 Written in August of 2021 instead， this chapter would read much differently。Nonetheless， at least one of his conclusions merits real thought: “But arguing that Trump could have averted the public health disaster is rather like saying that Bill Clinton could have prevented the dismemberment of Bosnia or the Rwandan genocide。 It is like claiming that Bush could have saved New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina or avoided the 2008 financial crisis， or that Obama had the power to avert or end quickly the Syrian Civil War—or the capacity to save hundreds of thousands of Americans from opioid overdoses。 All these arguments are versions of Tolstoy’s Napoleonic fallacy that do a violence to the complexity of political disaster by imagining the U。S。 president as an omnipotent executive， rather than an individual perched atop a bureaucratic hierarchy that would appear to have gotten steadily worse at managing disasters over a period of several decades。” Other chapters deal with death， disease and war， ranking them by their effectiveness in diminishing the population。 Extremely detailed descriptions of the effects of things like plague and yellow fever add great levels of discomfort for readers。 War， by contrast， seems to be straightforward slaughter in his hands。 He dwells on World War I for the horror we no longer think of it as being， restoring its place in the pantheon of disasters。There is a chapter on the zoology of disasters， as the current fashion would have it。 There are gray rhinos， black swans and dragon kings scampering about， wreaking unprecedented havoc。 Hurricanes get personalized with human names。 All of them have one thing in common – doom。Meanwhile， back at government， it is fairly common to blame government for famines （and justifiably so）， but Ferguson points to wars as the ultimate of manmade disaster， a perspective we don’t often appreciate。 Recently， remote control wars have limited the toll on soldiers， but civilian deaths， the real crime， are as out of control as ever。 Nonetheless， soldiers in World War I were far more likely to die from disease on the way to battle than in battle itself。 It turns out that was a very common situation throughout history。Also common throughout history is defiance of quarantines。 Life must go on， even if it means killing yourself and your family。 Today， masks are fiercely resisted once again。 Several writers have compared them to condoms， which have the potential to stop HIV infections and are similarly resisted。 The HIV pandemic was the COVID-19 of its day， frightening the whole world。 Today， there is still no cure or vaccine to cancel HIV。In pandemics and plagues， government has often given horrible advice and direction。 Mao’s stunning famines were of his own making。 In the Irish famine， the strictly Christian English government refused most aid to the Irish and even continued exporting oats away from Ireland， because it was clearly God’s will to punish the evil Irish， and the English government wasn’t about to cross God。 Others， like Trump， were simply not up to the task and kept saying it would magically disappear by itself， we’re turning the corner， we’ve got it beaten， we’re leading the world in dealing with it， it’s really hard to get， it’s nothing to worry about， etc。， until deaths near half a million and total cases pass 25 million as I write this。 China reveals only what it wants to， and directs the population， right down to the individual， in attempting to manage it all for public relations purposes。So what general conclusions can we draw form all this misery？ Ferguson coolly says: “Most disasters occur when a complex system goes critical， usually as a result of some small perturbation。 The extent to which the exogenous shock causes a disaster is generally a function of the social network structure that comes under stress。 The point of failure， if it can be located at all， is more likely to be in the middle layer than at the top of the organization chart。 When failure occurs， however， society as a whole， and the different interest groups within it， will draw much larger inferences about future risk than are warranted—hence the widespread conclusion from a small number of accidents that nuclear power was chronically unsafe。”Regardless of the potential for death and doom， people carry on regardless， always believing it won’t happen to them。 And despite all the evidence to the contrary， so it must be。David Wineberg 。。。more

Zach ，

A bit macabre， a bit dismissive， Niall Ferguson's upcoming history of catastrophe alternates between fascinating and a little too disconnected from reality， where frontline workers have boots on the ground。 Essentially， everything but the sections actually dealing with COVID are excellent， well-realized， and highly interesting accounts of different disasters， the context in which they became all too possible， and the series of actors that played important roles， big and small。 Meanwhile， the COV A bit macabre， a bit dismissive， Niall Ferguson's upcoming history of catastrophe alternates between fascinating and a little too disconnected from reality， where frontline workers have boots on the ground。 Essentially， everything but the sections actually dealing with COVID are excellent， well-realized， and highly interesting accounts of different disasters， the context in which they became all too possible， and the series of actors that played important roles， big and small。 Meanwhile， the COVID insights （outside the scientific） are already too outdated and， as a result， too callous to be taken as seriously as I suspect the author would wish。 Oh well。 The final chapters， focusing on China and the role sci-fi has in predicting future disasters， more than made up for the slouching middle。 。。。more

Jeff ，

Complete And Well Documented Examination of Disaster。 This is a book that looks not just at one disaster or one type of disaster， but at all of them。 It doesn't look to one threat or another threat or a third threat， but moves between types of threats and shows how they， really， are all interrelated by a common element: the human， and in particular the governmental， response to them。 From ancient plagues and volcanoes to hot-off-the-press （at the time of writing a few months prior to even my own Complete And Well Documented Examination of Disaster。 This is a book that looks not just at one disaster or one type of disaster， but at all of them。 It doesn't look to one threat or another threat or a third threat， but moves between types of threats and shows how they， really， are all interrelated by a common element: the human， and in particular the governmental， response to them。 From ancient plagues and volcanoes to hot-off-the-press （at the time of writing a few months prior to even my own seeming first public review level early read） details of the current global catastrophes。 While docking a star for Ferguson's high praise of John Maynard Keynes （suffice it to say I tend to hold economists such as Hayak， Bastiat， and Von Mises to levels Ferguson holds Keynes）， that isn't really my style since those are more a couple of aside level comments randomly in this near 500 page volume。 But also， don't let the near 500 page count deter you - in my copy， 48% of that text （or nearly 200 pages） was bibliography， making this one of the more well documented books I've read in the last few years。 Truly a book that needs to be considered by at minimum policy makers but really the public at large， at times it doesn't really go far enough to point out that voluntary community based disaster preparedness can often do more good than government top down approaches （even as he continually points out that the failures most often happen at middle management levels）。 Very much recommended。 。。。more

Reference

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The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0